Four Talent Futures: Preparing for What Comes Next

We all agree talent matters. The question is: Will you get better at managing it?

To help you think through your talent agenda, we’ve mapped four possible futures based on two factors:

• How important talent management becomes to the business

• Whether manager skill in talent management improves

This matrix isn’t just a theoretical exercise. It’s a tool to stress-test your current reality and guide the right response. Where would you place your organizational reality and path forward if you were brutally honest?

In the next 3–5 years, we’ll see companies land in quite different places when it comes to talent management (TM). Some will become magnets for top performers. Others will continue to lose great people because managers can’t—or won’t—lead talent effectively. Here are our predictions across industries and organizations.

The importance of talent management is set to grow significantly in the coming years. Workforce shifts—like aging populations and waning loyalty—are reshaping expectations around development, flexibility, and purpose, while global skills shortages are making it harder to find and keep top talent. At the same time, AI and digital transformation are demanding new approaches to upskilling, internal mobility, and strategic workforce planning. Employees themselves are raising the bar, expecting personalized growth, meaningful work, and inclusive cultures. Add to that the lessons from recent crises—where companies with strong talent systems proved far more resilient, and it’s clear: talent management is moving from nice-to-have to non-negotiable. Indeed, the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025 listed talent management as one of the top 10 skills.

On the other axis, the skill of talent management among managers could rise—or stall—over the next few years, depending on how organizations respond. On one hand, there are encouraging signals: top companies are embedding talent into leadership development, and consultancies like McKinsey and Deloitte highlight the importance of skills-based planning, AI-driven insights, and performance accountability in enabling managers to make smarter, faster decisions. BCG’s Global Leadership and Talent Index shows that companies with high leadership engagement in talent, where senior leaders spend significant time on development, outperform their peers in revenue and profit. And yet, progress is far from guaranteed. Despite decades of effort, many managers are still unskilled at core TM activities like hiring for potential, feedback, coaching, or succession planning. The wide variability across organizations proves that tools and systems alone are insufficient. Without cultural reinforcement, sustained development, and real leadership accountability, talent management remains an HR dependency—not a leadership discipline. 

Okay, now it’s your turn.

Look at the matrix. Be honest, Where is your organization today? Are you investing in talent systems but struggling with manager execution? Do you have a few great leaders operating in a culture that doesn’t prioritize talent? Or are you already in the Talent Powerhouse zone, and your focus is on sustaining momentum?

For greater accuracy (opportunity to be brutally honest), ask your leaders. They have a POV.

Once you’ve placed yourself, consider: What are your no-regret investments that will pay off in any scenario? Building manager skill could be one of them. So is simplifying your processes, making talent decisions more visible, and building an AI talent management capability. Then consider: where do you place your bets? If you’re in Strategic Breakdown, you could bet on manager enablement. If you’re in Misplaced Excellence, your bet is on elevating TM to the strategic agenda. If you’re in the Talent Wasteland, start small and prove impact in one team or function.

You don’t have to fix everything at once. You start where you start. But you do have to act. Because the future of your organization depends on the choices you make about talent today.

Disclaimer: The opinions are our own and not those of affiliated organizations.